A new study shows that most British mozzarella exports will not be able to compete in EU markets due to the high tariffs that would be applied in the case of Brexit without a deal.

In the absence of a transaction scenario, the UK will face a single EU external tariff for any export sent to the EU. For British mozzarella, this means tariffs of 185.20 euros / 100 kg, which is approximately 45% of the cost of the product.

Now the UK has a shortage of mozzarella in value and volume terms. In other words, it imports more than it exports. In 2018, the United Kingdom imported 48 thousand tons more mozzarella than it exported.

Mozzarella trade has been growing every year for the past three years. However, as exports grow faster than imports, the trade deficit is gradually narrowing. However, in monetary terms, the UK's trading position worsened.

Almost all British mozzarella comes from the EU, about 40% directly from Denmark. Imports have fallen from France, Germany and Ireland since 2015 and shifted to Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands.

According to AHDB Dairy, if trade had completely stopped, there would have been a mozzarella deficit of 48 thousand tons in the UK and about 472 million liters of milk or 3% of the national milk production would have been needed to eliminate it on the domestic market.